According to an analysis by public health experts, worldwide eradication of COVID-19 is theoretically more feasible than polio, but much less than smallpox.
The researchers, writing in the international journal BMJ Global Health, ranked the feasibility of eradicating three diseases on the basis of technological, socio-political and economic factors.
Smallpox, which was declared eradicated in 1980, had the highest average score for eradication viability. It had an average score of 2.7 on a three-point scale across 17 variables. In comparison, the average score of Kovid-19 was 1.6 and that of Polio was 1.5.
Experts from the University of Otago in New Zealand define eradication as a reduction in the incidence of infection to zero as a result of deliberate efforts by a specific agent in a defined geographic area; Whereas eradication of infection would mean a permanent reduction to zero in the worldwide incidence of infection caused by a specific agent as a result of deliberate efforts.
The combination of vaccination programmes, public health measures and global interest in combating COVID-19 all contribute to making eradication possible, according to University Professor Nick Wilson.
“Eradication of COVID-19 at the country level has been achieved over a long period of time in various parts of the Asia Pacific region, which suggests that global eradication is possible,” Wilson said. Areas of possibility in terms of technical feasibility.
Vaccination programs are responsible for the global eradication of smallpox and two of the three serotypes of poliovirus. Some other diseases are close to being eradicated without the use of vaccines, with China recently becoming the 40th country to be certified malaria-free.
While the focus has been on the need to access herd immunity to overcome COVID-19, population immunity may not be necessary to combat the disease, with smallpox being eradicated through ring-vaccination programs that kill infected people. target people’s contacts, Wilson said.
Compared to smallpox and polio, the challenges of eradicating COVID-19 include poor acceptance of vaccines in some countries and the emergence of forms of the pandemic virus that may be more transmissible or may be able to evade protection from vaccines.
But, the virus will eventually reach the limit of its ability to mutate into more infectious forms, and new vaccines are likely to be designed to combat evolving strains of the disease, Wilson said.
Other challenges include the high cost of vaccinating the world’s population and upgrading health systems, and achieving international cooperation in the face of aggressive anti-science movements and vaccine nationalism. While the pandemic virus can infect wild and domestic animal populations, it is unlikely to be a serious challenge to eradicate.
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