Exit Polls Give Positive Outlook to BJP in Nagaland, Tripura; Here’s Why

Exit polls from various channels oscillated between predicting a hung House in Meghalaya, a win for the NDPP, backed by the BJP in Nagaland, the two states that went to polls on Monday, and predicting a clean sweep for the BJP in a hung House Given. In the state of Tripura, where a new party Tipra Motha may emerge as a potential king-maker in the elections held a week ago, according to a PTI report.

According to these exit polls, the BJP’s performance has been good in all the three northeastern states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. And while exit polls are not foolproof predictions, something can be said about a number of factors that may have tilted things in favor of the BJP in the Northeast.

according to a reports In money control Written by political commentator Sagarneil Sinha, there are a few things that according to him work in favor of the BJP. These:

• Modi Factor: As per the report, the focus of the PM Narendra Modi-led government is on welfare in an area that has often been complained of being ‘ignored’ by previous central governments.
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• Manik Saha in Tripura: Sinha writes that the choice to nominate Manik Saha, an honest and soft-spoken man, as the new chief minister may have helped the saffron party to control anti-incumbency sentiment. He also says that the CPM has seen a major chunk of its support after its defeat in the 2018 state elections. “Even as there were indications that the Left was gaining support in the recent local elections, it appears that the party has not been able to recover the vote share it lost to the BJP. Also, there is a possibility that voters on the left and in the House will not transfer their votes correctly. Notably, in the Tripura model there was no amicable dispute between the two allies on any seat, unlike the West Bengal Left-Congress model,” he points out.
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• Meanwhile, Tipra Motha, a fledgling party founded by former royal Pradyot Kishor Manakiya Debbarma, is shown winning 9-16 seats from tribal areas with a vote share of 20 per cent.
• Militant-turned-Tipra Motha president Bijoy Kumar Harangkhwal had told PTI ahead of the polls that in the event of a hung assembly, his party would consider supporting any party that accepts or advances the demand for a separate Tipraland state. . He had said, “In a post-poll scenario, we are ready to support from outside (in case of a hung House), but you have to agree on paper and on the floor of the House that a new state will be created,” he had said Was .

Nagaland: The NDPP led by ally Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio has contributed significantly to the success of the saffron party. Rio is a well-known figure in this field. The report states that apart from the Modi factor, the end of the opposition in the state has contributed to the NDPP-BJP partnership.

What about Meghalaya?

Both Times Now ETG Exit and India Aaj-My Axis poll predicted a hung house in the state, dubbed the ‘Scotland of the East’, even as Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma was confident of victory.

Sangma said, “We are happy that the exit poll projections are in line with our belief that we will get more seats than last time… We are keeping all our options and will do in the best interest of the state.” In a sign that post-poll alliances were being thought of.

times now etg exit poll It predicted that Sangma’s NPP would get 18–26 seats, the Trinamool Congress led by former Chief Minister Mukul Sangma would get 8–14 seats, the UDP 8–14 seats, while the BJP would increase its seats by between two and 3–6 seats. will improve.

India Today-My Axis It predicted that the NPP would gain 18–24 seats, short of a majority, forcing it to look to other parties to boost its figures. It gave 8-12 seats to UDP, 6-12 seats to Congress, 5-9 seats to TMC and 4-8 seats to BJP.

Zee News-Matrix Exit Poll predicted that the National People’s Party would retain Meghalaya with 21 to 26 seats. Also it predicted 8-13 seats for Trinamool and 6-11 for BJP.

Sinha has said in his report that apart from the Modi factor, the Meghalaya BJP has some well-known faces, such as Sanbor Shullai and Alexander Lalu Heck.

This is likely to be beneficial for the Hindu minority party that voted heavily for the BJP. In the elections, the BJP campaigned in every seat and did not hold back in criticizing the NPP, a key ally in the BJP-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). The BJP is the party in power at the federal level, and having a federal government on your side is generally beneficial, so maintaining an alliance with the NPP is likely, he argues.

with PTI inputs

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