The BJP’s alliance with Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP in Andhra Pradesh and with the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in Uttar Pradesh have paid off well if Lok Sabha election exit poll results are to be believed.
However, the exit poll predictions, released on Saturday evening following the conclusion of the seventh and final phase of voting, could spell trouble for the BJP-Eknath Shinde-Ajit Pawar alliance in Maharashtra. The results of the Lok Sabha elections 2024 on June 4 could have significant bearing on alliances and seat-sharing for the Maharashtra Assembly elections later this year.
As per the News18 Mega Exit Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win 19-22 of the 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh. This year, the BJP, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena contested the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls together in the southern state.
As per their seat-sharing formula for 2024, the BJP contested six Lok Sabha and 10 Assembly seats, while the TDP fought fight 17 parliamentary and 144 state seats. Under the deal, Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena contested two Lok Sabha and 21 Assembly seats. Jagan Mohan Reddy’s Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) could win five-eight seats, according to the exit poll survey.
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is likely to continue its dominant electoral run, with the News18 Mega Exit Poll predicting the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance to win 68-71 seats in the state. Of these, the BJP may win 64-67 seats, according to the poll survey. The induction of Jayant Chaudhary’s RLD and Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party had strengthened the NDA alliance in the state.
It is Maharashtra where the electoral fortunes of the BJP and its allies will be keenly watched as the results could shape the course of the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The BJP-Eknath Shinde-Ajit Pawar alliance was tested to the limits during the seat-sharing discussions and a less than favourable result might further strain the tripartite relationship.
As per the News18 Mega Exit Polls, the NDA is likely to win 32-35 seats in the state, with 20-23 for the BJP. With 48 seats, Maharashtra ranks second behind Uttar Pradesh in sending MPs to the Lok Sabha. In Mahayuti, the BJP contested 28 seats, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena 14 and Ajit Pawar-led NCP got five seats.
On May 27, Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister and senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis had said all three parties in the Mahayuti alliance will jointly decide about seats to be contested in the Assembly elections, but added that the BJP will certainly get the maximum share by virtue of being the biggest party.
“Leaders of all the three parties of Mahayuti will sit together to decide a proper seat-sharing formula for assembly polls and seats will be allotted accordingly. Obviously, BJP will get the maximum number of seats as it is the biggest party. However, our allies will be given due respect in the seat allotment,” Fadnavis had told reporters.
He was replying to a query on remarks attributed to NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal wherein he said that the Ajit Pawar-led party will get to contest at least 80 to 90 of the total 288 seats.
In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP contested 122 seats and won 105, while its then ally Shiv Sena (undivided) fought on 63 seats and emerged victorious on 56. The Nationalist Congress Party (undivided), which was part of the opposition UPA, had won 41 seats.
The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and NCP headed by Sharad Pawar split in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Most exit polls have predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will retain power for a third straight term, with the BJP-led NDA expected to win a big majority. If the exit polls hold true, Modi will equal the record of the country’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, in leading his party to victory at the polls for a third straight term.
The BJP had given the slogan of ‘400 paar’ for its alliance in the Lok Sabha polls. Many pollsters say the NDA may surpass its 2019 tally of 353 seats. The BJP had won 303 seats in the election. The Congress had bagged 53 seats and its allies 38.
The NDA in all likelihood will open its account in Tamil Nadu and Kerala and sweep Karnataka but may see a fall in its tally in states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Haryana, while Uttar Pradesh is expected to remain a BJP bastion, according to most pollsters.
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