New Delhi: Zee News has conducted one of the largest ever opinion polls in the history of India and tried to capture the mood of voters in five electoral states – Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Manipur and Punjab.
This opinion poll was conducted by Zee News jointly in association with Design Boxing, a political campaign management company with vast experience in conducting opinion polls. In terms of sample size, it is also the largest opinion poll ever conducted in the history of India.
During this exercise, feedback and responses of more than 12 lakh people from 690 assembly seats in five states going to polls were collected. Uttarakhand has around 60 lakh voters, and given that size, the Zee News poll reached one in every 150 voters in the state.
Through this massive opinion poll, Zee News tries to catch the pulse of voters to understand the likely outcome of the intense electoral battle in these states. In this series, it was the first to release the predictions of the opinion polls for the hill state.
Zee News Editor-in-Chief Sudhir Choudhary, in his highly popular prime time show DNA, which aired on January 17, 2022, sought to analyze the results of the opinion polls and the likely scenario after the vote is actually cast in Uttarakhand.
Uttarakhand Opinion Poll 2022: BJP, Congress neck and neck; Harish Rawat most favorite CM face
Opinion polls seem to suggest that Congress veteran Harish Rawat is still the most preferred CM candidate, with around 41 per cent of the respondents backing him for the top post. Rawat was the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand thrice between 2014 and 2017. Despite infighting in the Congress and disagreements over ticket distribution, he has emerged as the first choice for the chief minister’s chair.
While the current Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami is second in this list. Only 27 per cent of those polled have supported him as chief minister. Although Dhami took over as the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand about 6 months ago, he is far behind his Congress rival in terms of popularity and people’s support.
With the support of 15 percent people, Anil Baluni of BJP is third and the choice of 9 percent people for the post of Chief Minister is Colonel Ajay Kothiyal of Aam Aadmi Party.
Pushkar Singh Dhami Vs Harish Rawat Vs Ajay Kothiyal – Who is the public’s choice for Chief Minister?
In the 2017 elections, BJP got an absolute majority in Uttarakhand. But despite this the saffron party could not form a stable government. Between 2017 and 2022, BJP has changed three chief ministers in five years. First Trivendra Singh Rawat was made the Chief Minister, then Tirath Singh Rawat took over the chair. But after three months he too was removed and Pushkar Singh Dhami took over the reins from him. This repeated change seems to have done a lot of damage to the BJP’s image in Uttarakhand.
According to the opinion poll of Zee News-Design Boxed, 23 percent of the people said that unemployment is the biggest issue in the assembly elections in Uttarakhand. Uttarakhand ranks 10th in the list of 28 states and 8 union territories in terms of unemployment. Apart from this, according to a survey, every third person in Uttarakhand is unemployed. Therefore, no party can ignore this issue if it aims at securing a popular mandate.
As a state, Uttarakhand is divided into two main regions – Garhwal and Kumaon. In the 41 seats of Garhwal region, the BJP is likely to get about 43 percent of the total vote share, while the Congress is likely to get 38 percent of the votes. At the same time, Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is likely to get 14 percent of the total vote share while other parties are likely to get 5 percent.
In Garhwal, the ruling BJP is expected to win somewhere between 22-24 (23) seats. The Congress is far behind the ruling BJP here and the party is getting 15-17 (16) seats. You and others may get a seat each here. Talking about the entire state, the ruling BJP may win between 31-35 (33) seats, Congress 33-37 (35), AAP 0-2 (1) and others 0-1 (1).
In Garhwal, Congress veteran Harish Rawat has emerged as the most preferred CM candidate with 43% of the people voting in his favour. At the same time, 23 percent people have supported the current CM Pushkar Singh Dhami. According to the Zee News opinion poll, he is followed by Anil Baluni with 17% and Col Ajay Kothiyal (AAP) with 8% votes.
Talking about vote percentage in 29 assembly constituencies of Kumaon region, Congress is leading here in terms of vote share with 42% vote share, followed by BJP with 38 percent, AAP with 10 percent votes, while others are also getting approx. There is a possibility of getting 10 votes. % vote share in the region.
Now talking about the assembly seats of Kumaon, here BJP is expected to win between 9-11 (10) seats. The Congress is expected to win between 18-20 (19) seats. Others are likely to get 0-1 (0) seats in this area.
In 2017, BJP got 57 out of 70 seats in Uttarakhand while Congress was successful in winning 11 seats. Independent candidates had won two seats. But according to the opinion poll of Zee News, BJP seems to be winning between 31 to 35 seats this time.
On the other hand, Congress seems to be winning between 33 and 37 seats. That is, the Congress seems to be getting the maximum number of seats. Aam Aadmi Party is expected to win zero to 2 seats. While others are likely to get zero to one seat.
Another worrying thing for the ruling BJP is that its vote share is also likely to decline this time in Uttarakhand. In 2017, the BJP got about 46.51 percent and the Congress got 33.49 percent of the votes. Others got 20 percent of the vote.
But this time the picture for BJP looks gloomy. Its overall vote share is expected to drop 7 per cent to 39 per cent. Congress, on the other hand, is likely to increase its vote share by 7 per cent to 40 per cent. Amidst all this, the Aam Aadmi Party is expected to get around 12 per cent and others 9 per cent of the total votes.
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//console.log("prevLoc" + prevLoc);
$(window).scroll(function(){
var last = $(auto_selector).filter(':last');
var lastHeight = last.offset().top ;
//st = $(layout).scrollTop();
//console.log("st:" + st);
var currentScroll = $(this).scrollTop();
if (currentScroll > previousScroll){
_up = false;
} else {
_up = true;
}
previousScroll = currentScroll;
//console.log("_up" + _up);
var cutoff = $(window).scrollTop() + 64;
//console.log(cutoff + "**");
$('div[id^="row"]').each(function(){
//console.log("article" + $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr("id") + $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-url'));
if($(this).offset().top + $(this).height() > cutoff){
//console.log("$$" + $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-url'));
if(prevLoc != $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-url')){
prevLoc = $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-url');
$('html head').find('title').text($(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-title'));
$('meta[name=description]').attr("content",$(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-summary'));
$('meta[name=keywords]').attr("content",$(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-keyword'));
$('meta[name=news_keywords]').attr("content",$(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-keyword'));
pSUPERFLY.virtualPage(prevLoc,$(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-title'));
//console.log("Summary: " + $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-summary'));
//console.log("Keyword: " + $(this).children().find('.left-block').attr('data-keyword'));
//history.pushState('' ,'', prevLoc);
loadshare(prevLoc);
}
return false; // stops the iteration after the first one on screen
}
});
if(lastHeight + last.height() < $(document).scrollTop() + $(window).height()){
//console.log("**get");
url = $(next_selector).attr('href');
x=$(next_selector).attr('id');
//console.log("x:" + x);
//handle.autopager('load');
/*setTimeout(function(){
//twttr.widgets.load();
//loadDisqus(jQuery(this), disqus_identifier, disqus_url);
}, 6000);*/
}
//lastoff = last.offset();
//console.log("**" + lastoff + "**");
});
//$( ".content-area" ).click(function(event) {
// console.log(event.target.nodeName);
//});
/*$( ".comment-button" ).live("click", disqusToggle);
function disqusToggle() {
var id = $(this).attr("id");
$("#disqus_thread1" + id).toggle();
};*/
//$(".main-rhs2428690").theiaStickySidebar();
var prev_content_height = $(content_selector).height();
//$(function() {
var layout = $(content_selector);
var st = 0;
///});
}
}
});
/*}
};*/
})(jQuery);
,