Defense/Foreign Affairs: Big Diplomacy

India entered the new year, seeing what could be the third year of a military standoff with China in eastern Ladakh. The 14th round of Corps Commander-level talks on January 12 failed to resolve the military standoff, which began in May 2020 when China moved two divisions to Ladakh. Both the armies are eyeing each other at three disputed sites. And as long as these friction points remain, both sides will continue to deploy some 100,000 troops at their respective ends at high altitude, making it the world’s longest military deployment.

China’s new border law indicates a toughening of its stand on long-standing border disputes with India. The permanent structures it is building at the sign of the Tibetan Plateau are there for the long haul. June 15, 2020, There has been no violent incident along the border since the Galwan conflict, in which 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers were killed. Vigilance at the border pays off, as the government found, because it allows them to resolve border flashpoints using diplomacy and military dialogue. Seventy-five percent of MOTN respondents believe the central government has handled the border standoff with China very well – a slight drop from the 78 percent who supported the government’s stand in August 2021.

The growing potential for conflict with China means that New Delhi’s other major foreign policy headache—Pakistan—looks relatively manageable. Given the alarming state of its economy and the hands-on existence, Pakistan seems incapable of becoming a significant threat in the short term. The country’s new national security policy talks about improving relations with India, but, from New Delhi’s point of view, as long as Islamabad continues to promote cross-border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab, there can be no talks Is. More than 55 percent of the respondents do not want the dialogue to resume.

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The union territory of Jammu and Kashmir – parts of which are under Chinese and Pakistani occupation – is thus more in focus than before. Three years ago, New Delhi bifurcated the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir into union territories and diluted Article 370. Respondents have hardened towards a return to normalcy in the state, with a marked drop from 66 per cent in August’s MOTN. 2021 Now 46 percent in favor of restoring statehood.

The China-Pakistan axis means that India will need the support of friends like the US. India-US relations have been strong for the past two decades. Apart from being a key strategic ally, the US is India’s largest trading partner – bilateral trade is set to cross $145 billion (about Rs 10.7 lakh crore) in 2020-21. Therefore, the steady decline in the MOTN rating of US President Joe Biden remains a mystery. From a high of 52 per cent in January 2021, who viewed him favorably, it dropped to 42 per cent in August and now only 38.8 per cent think he is good for India. Perhaps this is another reason why Biden needs to take up Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s invitation to visit New Delhi.