The stakes could hardly be higher for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Just three months before the biggest test of his political career, a major 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck Turkey and Syria, killing more than 15,000 people.
On May 14, Turkey will vote in presidential and parliamentary elections, which polls before the disaster suggest will turn into a tight race for Erdogan, who has led the country since 2003.
And even before Monday’s predawn disaster struck, Erdogan was trying to juggle several crises at the same time.
His unorthodox approach to economics has set off an inflationary spiral that has seen consumer prices rise 85 percent annually in the past year.
At the same time, his government is fending off allegations of nepotism, corruption and retaliation in its response to environmental disasters, including wildfires in 2021.
Realizing the challenge, Erdogan is fighting back.
Hours after the earthquake, he took the main stage at a press conference in Ankara – one of many over the next three days.
On Wednesday, he hugged a crying woman affected by the earthquake in Kahramanmaras province, where the death toll is even higher, before being taken away.
He also acknowledged his government’s “shortcomings” during the Hatay visit, but stressed that “it is not possible to be prepared for such a disaster”.
– Shameful response to 1999 –
Erdogan has no doubt that it was Turkey’s last major earthquake in 1999, which brought his party victory in 2002 after promises of better governance. The then Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit was heavily criticized for failing the 1999 relief effort.
Following Monday’s quake, Turkey swiftly declared a level four emergency calling for international aid. Support from dozens of countries – including regional rivals – has poured in swiftly.
Experts say Erdogan could consolidate his position if he manages the crisis well. But failure could see him suffer the fate of Acevit.
“An effective emergency response could also strengthen the AKP leader and his party by generating a sense of national solidarity under Erdogan’s leadership,” said Wolfgango Piccoli of Teneo, a London-based political risk consultant.
“However, the sheer scale of the earthquake – ten southern provinces were affected – will present a significant challenge to the government,” he added in a note.
“If the post-quake response is not successful, Erdogan could lose the election in May,” said Emre Caliskan, a research fellow at the UK-based Foreign Policy Centre.
– ‘Weak’ state institutions –
Disappointment is brewing in southern Turkey. Many destitute families lashed out at the government for failing to reach out to them and rescue their loved ones from the rubble.
Others waited for more than 24 hours for state relief workers to provide food and shelter.
Analyst Gonul Tol, who was in Turkey at the time of the quake and lost relatives in the tragedy, said anger was palpable in Hatay, one of the worst-affected provinces.
“I can’t imagine that he (Erdogan) would not be affected by this because of the level of frustration, I saw that anger firsthand. I’m sure it will have an impact,” said Tol, who is Turkey program director at the US-based Middle East Institute.
Tol also said that in 1999 civil society organizations worked tirelessly to help the victims.
This time, there are fewer as Erdogan has cracked down on many in the wake of the failed 2016 coup.
“Twenty years later, we are not in a better place,” he told AFP.
– ‘Pro’ media –
However, Erdogan faced no criticism from most mainstream media, experts pointed out, giving the president a clear advantage over the opposition.
News channels have reported little on the impact of shoddy construction after the houses collapsed, including those that were built only six months or a year ago.
Yet after the 1999 disaster, the government introduced building regulations to ensure that new buildings would survive major shakes.
“The opposition says that the number of earthquake-related deaths was not solely due to a natural disaster, but the result of poorly regulated and poor-quality construction,” Caliskan said.
Within days of the 1999 earthquake, newspapers criticized the government over the response. Not so this time.
“A largely supportive domestic media also means that Erdogan will manage the narrative and may benefit from the situation,” Adeline van Houtte, senior Europe consultant at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note.
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