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- AIIMS Chief Dr Randeep Guleria India Corona Virus Case Are Value Inching Up Containment Strategy
New Delhi3 minutes ago
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The rising ‘R-value’ in India standing at the mouth of the third wave of corona virus has drawn lines of concern. AIIMS chief Dr. Randeep Guleria said that the R-value starting from .96 to 1 is a cause for concern. This means that the chances of spreading the infection from a covid infected person are high. In such a situation, a ‘test, track and treat’ strategy will have to be adopted to break the chain of transmission. There is a need for a strict policy for prevention in those parts where new cases are increasing rapidly.
The Union Health Ministry has asked the states to impose strict restrictions in all those districts where the positivity rate is more than 10%. The Center said that the states should ensure that effective steps are taken to prevent the gathering of people in these areas. The 10 states where cases are increasing include Kerala, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Assam, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Andhra Pradesh and Manipur.
How do cases increase by R value?
- According to data scientists, the R factor is the reproduction rate. It tells how many people are or may be infected by an infected person. If the R factor is greater than 1.0 it means that the cases are increasing. On the other hand, the R factor being less than 1.0 or going down is a sign of decreasing case.
- It can also be understood from the fact that if 100 people are infected. If they infect 100 people then the R value will be 1. But if they are able to infect 80 people then this R value will be 0.80.
Whole family vulnerable to Delta infected person
At the same time, Dr. Guleria said that the ‘R-value’ of measles or chicken pox was 8 or more, which means that one person can infect 8 other people. This shows that the coronavirus is quite contagious. We saw that during the second wave the whole family would get infected. It also happens with chicken pox. Similarly, the whole family is vulnerable to a person infected with Delta.
The reason for the increasing cases in Kerala will have to be found out.
The AIIMS chief said that initially Kerala prevented the pandemic well, setting an example for others. He undertook a vaccination campaign. Despite this, cases are increasing there more than other parts of the country. Will have to study it. The reasons for this have to be found out. It has to be seen whether the rules related to prevention are being strictly followed or not.
Despite antibodies, cases increased in some areas
Dr Guleria said, ‘A survey conducted in a Brazilian city showed that 70% of the population had antibodies. Nevertheless, matters started increasing here. We do not know what is the cut-off in such cases and the antibodies also gradually decrease. However, the chances of serious infection in this condition are low. As people are getting infected in Kerala and UK, they may be spreading to others but they are not getting serious infection.
Can rising R-value impose lockdown?
- Yes. Certainly. If the R value continues to rise and reaches around 1.0, then the lockdown may be imposed again. This is a formula that the central and state governments are following. Right now his focus is on the positivity rate.
- Experts say that the R value can be kept under control only with lockdown and strict restrictions. If people do not come out, then the infected person will not be able to infect other people. In May too, the main reason for the decrease in the R-value was the lockdown. Then the second wave also started to cool down.
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