New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may reach almost three-fourth majority in Parliament by winning within a range of 371 to 401 seats out of a total of 543 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP alone is projected to win within a range of 319-338 seats, says India TV-CNX Exit Poll, results of which were telecast today on the channel.
The opposition Congress-led INDIA bloc may win between 109 and 139 seats, while others including independents may get the remaining 28 to 38 seats, says the exit poll projection.
The exit poll was conducted in 17,919 randomly selected polling stations spread across 1,629 Assembly seats within all 543 Lok Sabha constituencies. The total number of respondents was 1,79,190. These include 92,205 males and 86,985 females.
Party wise seat predictions: (Range)
- BJP: 319-338
- Congress: 52-64
- Aam Aadmi Party (AAP): 2-4
- Trinamool Congress: 14-18
- Samajwadi Party: 10-14
- JD-U: 11-13
- DMK: 15-19
- TDP: 12-16
- Shiv Sena (UBT): 10-12
- Shiv Sena (Shinde): 5-7
- Biju Janata Dal (BJD): 4-6
- YSR Congress (YSRCP): 3-5
- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP): 0
- Others: 50-54
- Total: 543 seats
Vote share percentage wise: The NDA may get 46 per cent and INDIA may get 40 per cent vote share.
Partywise: The BJP may get 41 per cent vote share, the Congress may get 21 per cent and others can get 38 per cent vote share.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is going to make a clean sweep of all 26 seats in Gujarat, nearly all seats in Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, all 5 seats in Uttarakhand, and a clean sweep in Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Tripura, says the exit poll.
The most spectacular win is going to be in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP may win 62-68 seats, its alliance partners the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and Apna Dal may win two seats each, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) may win 10-16 seats, and the Congress may win 1-3 seats out of a total of 80 seats. The BSP may draw a blank in UP.
In Bihar, the NDA is going to win 34-36 seats, while the INDIA bloc may win only 4-6 seats.
The break-up: BJP 17 seats, RJD 3-5 seats, JD-U- 11-13 seats, Congress – 2 seats, LJP(RV) 3-4 seats, the HAM and the RLM one seat each.
In Rajasthan, the BJP may win 21-23 seats while the Congress may win 2-4 seats, while in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP may win 28-29 seats, while the Congress may win 0-1 seat.
In Chhattisgarh, the BJP may win 10-11 seats, while the Congress may win 0-1 seat. In Jharkhand, the BJP may win 10-12 seats, while the ruling JMM may win only 1-3 seats, the AJSU may win 1 seat, and Congress 0. Overall, in Jharkhand NDA may win 11-13 seats and INDIA bloc may win only 1-3 seats.
In West Bengal, BJP may win 22-26 seats, while Trinamool Congress may win 14-18 seats, and Congress may win 1-2 seats. INDIA bloc may do spectacularly well in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
In Tamil Nadu, DMK may win 16-18 seats, its ally Congress may win 6-8 seats, BJP may win 5-7 seats, AIADMK may win 0-1 seat, and Others may win 8-10 seats. Alliance wise, INDIA may win 30-34 seats, and NDA may win only 5-8 seats.
In Kerala, INDIA bloc may win 17-19 seats and NDA may win 1-3 seats. The Congress-led UDF may win 13-15 seats, LDF may win 3-5 seats. Partywise breakup: Conress 9-11, CPI-M- 3-5, BJP 1-3, Others – 4.
Congress is facing losses in its states Karnataka and Telangana. According to the exit poll projections, in Karnataka, BJP may win 18-22 seats, its ally JD-S may win 1-3 seats, while Congress may win only 4-8 seats. Similarly, in Telangana, BJP may win 8-10 seats, Congress may win only 6-8 seats BRS may win 0-1 seat, and AIMIM may win a solitary seat.
The ruling YSR Congress is going to be upstaged in Andhra Pradesh by Telugu Desam Party. According to the exit poll, TDP may win 13-15 seats, YSR Congress may win 3-5 seats, BJP may win 4-6 seats and JSP may win 2 seats. Overall, the NDA may win 19-23 seats in Andhra Pradesh.
In Punjab, the ruling AAP may face losses. Congress may win 4-6 seats, BJP may win 2-3 seats, Akali Dal may win 1-3 seats and AAP may win only 2-4 seats. In Haryana, BJP may win 6-8 seats and Congress may win 2-4 seats. In Himachal Pradesh, BJP may win 3-4 seats and Congress may win 0-1 seat.
The ruling Biju Janata Dal may face reverses in Odisha. BJD may win only 4-6 seats, BJP may win 15-17 seats while Congress may win the remaining one seat.
In the key state of Maharashtra, BJP may win 18-22 seats, followed by Shiv Sena (UBT) with 9-13 seats. Congress may win 4-6 seats, NCP (Pawar) may win 4-5 seats, Shiv Sena (Shinde) may win 5-7 seats, and NCP (Ajit) may win 1-3 seats.
In Delhi, BJP may win 6-7 seats, while Congress may win 0-1 seat. AAP may draw a blank.
Following is the state-wise break-up of India TV-CNX exit poll projections:
Andhra Pradesh: Total 25 (TDP 13-15, BJP 4-6, YSR Congress 3-5, JSP 2)
Arunachal Pradesh: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Assam: Total 14 (BJP 9-11, Congress 1-2, AIUDF: 1 Others 1-2)
Bihar: Total 40 (BJP 17, JDU 11-13, RJD 3-5, LJP(R) 3-4, HAM 1, RLM 1, Congress 2)
Chhattisgarh: Total 11 (BJP 10-11, Congress 0-1)
Goa: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Gujarat: Total 26 (BJP 26)
Haryana: Total 10 (BJP 6-8, Congress 2-4)
Himachal Pradesh: Total 4 (BJP 3-4, Congress 0-1)
Jharkhand: Total 14 (BJP 10-12, AJSU 1, JMM 1-3, Congress 0)
Karnataka: Total 28 (BJP 18-22, JD-S 1-3, Congress 4-8)
Kerala: Total 20 (UDF 13-15, LDF 3-5, NDA 1-3) Breakup – Congress 9-11, CPI-M 3-5, BJP 1-3, Others 4)
Madhya Pradesh: Total 29 (BJP 28-29, Congress 0-1)
Maharashtra: Total 48 ( BJP 18-22, Shiv Sena-UBT 9-13, NCP (Ajit) 1-3, Shiv Sena-Shinde 5-7, NCP-Sharad 4-5, Congress 4-6)
Manipur: Total 2 (BJP 1, Congress 1)
Meghalaya: Total 2 (NPP 1, Congress 1)
Mizoram: Total 1 (ZPM 1)
Nagaland: Total 1 (NDPP 1)
Odisha: Total 21 (BJP 15-17, BJD 4-6, Congress 1)
Punjab: Total 13 (Congress 4-6 BJP 2-3, Akali Dal 1-3, AAP 2-4)
Rajasthan: Total 25 (BJP 21-24, Congress 2-4)
Sikkim: Total 1 (SKM 1)
Tamil Nadu: Total 39 (DMK 16-18, AIADMK 0-1, BJP 5-7, Congress 6-8, Others 8-10)
Telangana: Total 17 (BJP 8-10, Congress 6-8, BRS 0-1, AIMIM 1)
Tripura: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Uttar Pradesh: Total 80 (BJP 62-68, NDA allies RLD 0-2, Apna Dal 2, SP 10-16, Congress 1-3, BSP 0)
Uttarakhand: Total 5 (BJP 5)
West Bengal: Total 42 (BJP 22-26, Trinamool Congress 14-18, Congress 1-2)
Andaman Nicobar: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Chandigarh: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Dadra Nagar Haveli, Daman and Diu: Total 2 (BJP 2)
Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh: Total 5 (BJP 2-3, Congress 0-1, National Conference 3)
Lakshadweep: Total 1 (Congress 1)
Delhi: Total 7 (BJP 6-7, Congress 0-1)
Puducherry: Total 1 (BJP 1)
Total: (543 Seats) : (NDA 371-401, I.N.D.I.A. 109-139, Others 28-38)