BJP clear in Nadda’s home state: 4 reasons for defeat in Mandi parliamentary and all three assembly seats in Himachal, pressure will increase on CM Thakur

JP Nadda and Prem Kumar Dhumal. (file photo)

The defeat in the by-elections in all four seats of Himachal Pradesh, the home state of BJP national president Jagatprakash Nadda, has put the BJP’s state and national leadership in question. The by-elections to three assembly seats along with Mandi Lok Sabha were being considered as the semi-finals of the proposed Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections in December-2022 and the Congress defeated the BJP in this semi-final.

Himachal Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur has been running the government for 4 years and questions have been raised on his working style as CM. After the defeat of former CM Premkumar Dhumal in the 2017 assembly elections, Jai Ram Thakur got the chief minister’s chair due to caste equations. Due to poor performance, the high command has summoned him to Delhi several times.

Discussions have also been going on to replace Jai Ram Thakur. Mandi is Jai Ram Thakur’s home district and the BJP’s defeat there in the by-elections will increase the pressure on the CM. After the election results on Tuesday, Jai Ram Thakur gave an opportunity to the opponents to target the central government by saying that the party lost due to inflation.

The biggest concern of the BJP in Himachal is the factionalism of the party. Here everyone is aware of the ongoing tussle between the faction of former CM Premkumar Dhumal and the Nadda camp. Due to this tussle, Chetan Bragta was not given party ticket from Jubbal-Kotkhai in the by-election as Chetan Dhumal and his son are close to Union Minister Anurag Thakur.

The woman leader Neelam Saraik, who was given ticket by BJP in place of Bragta, got only 2644 votes and even her deposit was forfeited.

Inflation issue heavy on BJP
There is a BJP government in Himachal Pradesh since 2017 and the people there are troubled by the ever-increasing inflation. During the election campaign, people freely expressed their opinion on this issue. After the results of four seats were declared on Tuesday, CM Jai Ram Thakur himself admitted that inflation was the reason for the defeat of the BJP.

Congress’s sympathetic vote, BJP’s soldier card failed
Arki assembly seat fell vacant on 8 July 2021 due to the death of former CM Virbhadra Singh. This was the first by-election in Himachal after the death of Virbhadra Singh. In such a situation, Congress played the sympathy card in Mandi Lok Sabha and Arki seat and got the benefit of it. Congress fielded Virbhadra Singh’s wife Pratibha Singh from Mandi Lok Sabha seat. Sanjay Awasthi got sympathy votes on Arki.

In the Mandi Lok Sabha seat, the BJP fielded Brigadier Khushal Singh, the hero of the Kargil war, carrying the soldier card. Brigadier Khushal Singh’s Unit 18 Grenadier hoisted the Indian flag on the most difficult peaks of Tololing and Tiger Hill during the Kargil War. There is also a significant vote of ex-servicemen in the Mandi parliamentary constituency, but the party’s strategy was not successful.

Displeasure with the government, youth did not come to vote
BJP is in power in Himachal for 4 years and the displeasure towards the party is clearly visible among the people there. The people of this hilly state believe that neither people got employment nor development works were done in 4 years. In such a situation, he took out his anger by voting for the Congress in the by-election.

The youth, who was considered the vote bank of BJP, did not even come to vote in this by-election. The absurdity of this vote bank of BJP can be understood from the fact that only 57.73% voter turnout was recorded in Mandi parliamentary seat. Assembly elections are proposed in Himachal after 12 months, i.e. in December 2022.

Mutual split is also a big factor
BJP is divided into several factions in Himachal. There is an old feud between the party’s national president Jagatprakash Nadda and former CM Premkumar Dhumal. Dhumal, who was once the most powerful leader of Himachal, sent Nadda to the Rajya Sabha for the purpose of ousting Nadda from Himachal’s politics, but time took such a turn that Nadda became the national president of the party. Result- Today Dhumal and the leaders of his faction are on the sidelines.

Due to this Nadda-Dhumal fight, the party made Neelam Saraik its candidate while cutting Chetan Bragata’s ticket from Jubbal-Kotkhai, who got only 2644 votes in the by-election. Bragata, who rebelled against the BJP and contested as an independent, took 23662 votes in the by-election and lost by just 6293 votes. Had the BJP given ticket to Chetan Bragta from Jubbal Kotkhai, leaving the mutual tussle, then perhaps the result here would have been different.