Bhaskar Analysis: Population growth slowed down, fertility rate low even in states with more Muslim population

Fertility rate equal to or more than replacement rate in only five states.

These days the demand for population control law is increasing rapidly. However, government figures suggest that the population of many states will stabilize in this decade. According to the National Family Health Survey-5 report, the fertility rate in most states has fallen to or below the replacement rate (2.1).

Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala, P. In states, including Bengal, where the Muslim population is more than 20%, the fertility rate is also below the national average (1.8). The exception to this is UP where, the rate is 2.4. According to Alok Bajpai, Joint Director, Population Foundation of India, the fertility rate is not directly related to religion, but to education, socio-economic status, health facilities.

The fertility rate in Jammu and Kashmir with 68% Muslim population is 1.4. The fertility rate is less than the replacement rate, except in the rural areas of UP. In only 5 states, the fertility rate is equal to or more than the replacement rate. The replacement rate is when the population does not increase. That is, as many people die, almost as many are born. In the year 1971 it was 5 which is now 2.1. At the same time, BJP MP Rakesh Sinha, who brought a private bill on population control in Rajya Sabha, calls the survey data misleading.

Sinha says the regional figures are misleading. It should be seen as a whole. Some families produce one child, some up to 7-8. Therefore, the distribution of resources is unequal. Sinha said, even the big companies do not want population control as they want cheap labour. Bihar and UP are suffering the consequences.

What’s the problem with the two-child rule? At the same time, Bajpai says that the figures are encouraging, saying that if the policy of two children comes, gender selection can increase in the desire of a son. China and Japan are examples. China had to change the one-child policy as the elderly population grew. Going too low replacement rate is also fatal for the economy.

Highest fertility rate in Bihar

Bihar has the highest 3 fertility rate in the country. At the same time, it is 2.9 in Meghalaya, 2.4 in UP, 2.3 in Jharkhand and 2.1 in Rajasthan. Figures from some of the survey states, including UP and Jharkhand, are yet to come, but the estimated figures are clearly indicating a 10 to 15% decline in the fertility rate of these states. The fertility rate in the country fell by 18% to 1.8 in 2019-20 as compared to 2015-16. In the year 1992-93 this rate was 3.5.

This is a sign that the population is moving towards stabilization. In 2017, the Central Government had started a special family planning campaign in 146 districts with fertility rate above 3.0, its effect is also visible. Fertility rate or total fertility refers to the number of children a woman between the ages of 15 and 49 gives birth to a child. The national average was 5 in 1970, which is now less than 1.9. Obviously, as the fertility rate is low, the population growth rate is also low.