The census was originally scheduled for 2020. House listing would have started in April 2020 while the headcount would have followed a year later in 2021. The last census was held in 2011.
The 2024 Union Budget has allocated Rs 1,309 crore for the exercise. In 2019, while giving the nod for the decadal census of 2020, the Cabinet had sanctioned Rs 8,754.23 crore. A sum of Rs 3,941.35 crore was sanctioned to update NPR — a total of Rs 12,700 crore in all for house listing and headcount for Indians. The allocation of one-tenth of the amount in this budget indicates that census and NPR are unlikely this year too.
Asked about the reduced funds, top government officials told CNN-News18 that this year’s budgetary allocation was only for preparation. “Once the census data collection is notified, whatever the amount required, it will be made available. The existing allocations will take care of the preparations till then,” a senior government official said.
Why the delay?
MoS Home Nityanand Rai had earlier told Parliament that the census was delayed because of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, after four years and the end of the pandemic, census and NPR are still not a reality. In the Union Budget of 2024, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman spoke of the Indian economy bouncing almost to the pre-Covid-19 level, indicating that the pandemic was over in government records.
Census-NPR-CAA-NRC connect
Opposition leaders like Asaduddin Owaisi have drawn an association between the recently implemented Citizenship Amendment Act, the National Population Register and the National Register for Citizens (NRC). BJP reiterated its commitment to CAA in its 2024 manifesto but NRC found no mention. CAA rules were soon rolled out and citizenship granted to eligible refugees. But questions about NRC have not found a straight answer from Home Minister Amit Shah in recent months. Now, with NPR and census also on the back burner, questions are being raised about the reasons behind the re-calibration and delay.
Demand for caste census a factor?
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, BJP’s blow hot, blow cold ally, was the chief architect of the caste enumeration in his avatar as an INDIA front leader. While he may have switched sides, Rahul Gandhi, the newly anointed Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, has kept the pressure up and sought a caste census.
In 2021, the Union government announced that the scheduled census would not include caste enumeration. This was a departure from 2011 when SC/ST/OBC related data was collected but never made public. The exercise carried out by the Ministry of Rural Development, Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation, and Ministry of Home Affairs was called the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) of 2011 and was meant to be used for policy, research and development programmes.
The year 2024, however, is politically different from both 2011 and 2021.
The 2024 Union Budget has given enough proof that Modi 3.0 is committed to the coalition dharma of taking allies like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu along. This means completely rejecting the caste census could be a sticky wicket.
Unemployment
The Opposition has been cornering the government over unemployment data, though the Centre has maintained that job creation has been its priority. In the 2011 enumerations forms, the respondents were asked about highest educational level attained, if they worked any time during last year, the category of economic activity, occupation, nature of the industry, trade or services, class of workers, non-economic activity, seeking or available for work, travel to place of work: (i) one-way distance (ii) mode of travel.
If the 2011 enumeration model is repeated in the next census, it could also lead to more clarity about migration. The 2011 form asked respondents to elaborate on reason of migration and also duration of stay in the village/town since migration.
In states like Bihar, ‘palayan’ or economic exodus is a big socio-political issue. Lack of employment opportunities in rural Bihar has been blamed for this exodus. The Opposition, in all likelihood, will seize any data which supports the economic distress and unemployment claims.
The government, however, claims that the decision on census in 2024 was purely logistical. Usually, cropping and migration patterns indicate that April is the best time to start headcount. Since the country was in the middle of election season in April 2024, the exercise could not have been commissioned this year in that time frame.