“I will sell Badam (nuts) if I lose”, “I will quit politics if I lose” — these are some statements that senior Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has been repeating over the past few days while campaigning or addressing the media in his constituency Baharampur. It is probably the most crucial and almost defining election for Chowdhury, Bengal’s senior-most Congress leader, and a known Gandhi family loyalist who has been a five-term MP from this seat since 1999.
Baharampur, one of three Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal’s Murshidabad district that is located near the International Border with Bangladesh, has Muslims as its majority population.
Baharampur is set to vote in the upcoming fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections and the seat will not only determine the course of Chowdhury’s political career, but will decide the pattern of voting in the state — especially for Muslims.
Last Bastion of Congress
Baharampur is now Congress’s last bastion in West Bengal, at least with regards to Lok Sabha elections. Since 1951, it has been a Red fort of the RSP (Revolutionary Socialist Party), a constituent of Left Front until 1999. Between 1951 and 1999, there were at least 11 elections and RSP won all, barring one. The former chief minister of Congress-led government in West Bengal, Siddhartha Sankar Roy, fought from that seat but lost.
In 1999, a young Chowdhury, who was then in his early 40s, won the seat and never lost. Chowdhury has been a loyalist of the Gandhi family and is now the leader of the parliamentary party in Lok Sabha. He used to have an iron grip over the district and all three constituencies as well. However, in 2019, Congress lost two seats in the district, while Chowdhury held onto his.
This election will also determine Congress’s political fate in a state that the party ruled for over three decades. During the rule of the Left Front government, Congress defended its turf Malda, Murshidabad, parts of south and north Dinajpur districts and Birbhum from where former President and Congress stalwart Pranab Mukherjee belonged. From six to seven seats in West Bengal, Congress slipped to two in 2019. In the 2021 assembly election, the party did not win any seat.
From 44 seats and around 15 per cent vote share, the party drew a blank in 2021. Its vote share plummeted to 2.93 per cent. In a bid to reverse its fortunes, Congress formed several alliances in Bengal over the past decades. It allied with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in 2011. However, the alliance fell flat following alleged poaching by TMC. It then joined hands with the Left Front, once its arch rival, in 2016. The party is fighting elections this season as part of the same alliance.
In 2021, Congress lost all seven assembly segments that constitute the Baharampur Lok Sabha seat. Six were won by Trinamool Congress, while one went to the BJP.
Muslim factor
A look at the data of the past five general elections shows that Chowdhury won the seat with a vote share of over 50 per cent. Murshidabad district has over 60 per cent Muslim vote share. Jangipur Lok Sabha seat has around 64 per cent share, while Baharampur has around 52 per cent. According to election data experts, Muslims voted for Congress in this district almost en mass until in 2019, when two Lok Sabha seats went to Trinamool. The party decimated further in the region in 2021.
Post the CAA protests, spearheaded by Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in 2019, Muslims consolidated in favour of Trinamool and it was reflected in the results of 2021 assembly elections.
During the election campaign, the Muslim factor is one of the primary reasons that Banerjee keeps targeting Congress, even more than she targets BJP. Muslim votes in Bengal are a low-hanging fruit for Trinamool Congress, Congress and Left. All of them want a share of that chunk though Muslims in Bengal now believe that only Banerjee can “protect” them from BJP, at least in the state. This is also the reason that Banerjee did not ally with Congress in Bengal and decided to fight elections alone.
Bipolar fight
Baharampur is going to witness a two-corner election between Trinamool Congress and the Grand Old Party. In her attempt to dethrone Chowdhury, Banerjee sprung a surprise by fielding Yusuf Pathan as the TMC candidate in Baharampur.
News18 travelled across villages in Baharampur and realised that while there is still support for Chowdhury, the dependence on Trinamool Congress is higher.
Murshidabad is also the district that sees maximum migration as villagers work as migrant labourers in other states. The villages are yet to see the return of migrants for elections. This is one of the many factors due to which Murshidabad, which voted in the third phase, saw a major drop in polling percentage.
Sahdul Sheikh, a trader in Baharampur, said Muslims have traditionally supported Chowdhury but, this time, they must consolidate in favour of one party. “We do not like Trinamool much. They have not done anything for Muslims as a community, but we have to be united for our survival. BJP has made things worse for us. We can trust Didi, but not her party leaders,” said Sheikh.
Bappa Mondal, a local villager in Beldanga, said: “Our villages are so polarised now. The polling will be on religious lines here. Adhir Babu has always been there for us. He is the most accessible leader. But, it is not easy to predict this time.” Beldanga saw communal riots during Ram Navami and tension continues to simmer in the village.
Banerjee’s cash schemes, including the ones for women, have strong resonance on the ground. Corruption is an issue but not as major to determine an election.
Fatima Biwi, the wife of a migrant labourer in Beldanga who runs a small grocery shop, said: “The Hindu and Muslim paras (localities) have always been peaceful until this riot on Ram Navami. We do not know if we can venture out on polling day. The male members are all out for work to other states and they didn’t come back for elections.”
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