Angela Merkel’s departure from the political stage after 16 years as chancellor has not only ushered in a new era in Germany but has also shaken the balance of power in the European Union.
Her successor to lead Europe’s largest economy, Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi as candidates to take over Merkel’s position as Europe’s leader. Has been reported.
But analysts warn that given the EU’s myriad unresolved challenges, one may not be able to handle the task immediately – from internal disputes over the rule of law to the risk of geopolitical marginalization in the aftermath of Brexit. till.
Praised for her steady hand in steering the bloc through crisis after crisis, Merkel, who will quit politics when she is officially elected chancellor in December, is leaving the stage despite still being extremely popular at home and abroad. .
During his 16-year tenure, he has been at times infamous for sticking to his plans despite opposition from his colleagues, while in others, he has been praised for keeping the line.
“Angela Merkel is regarded as one of the most important politicians in a generation, as the de facto leader of the European Union and ‘leader of a free world’,” wrote Sebastian Reich of the IESE Business School in Spain.
In a recent poll by think-tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), 41 percent of EU citizens said they would vote for Merkel if they could. In comparison, only 14 percent chose Macros.
‘Sovereign Europe’
Yet critics say Merkel’s “stability” politics of exiting the crisis and prioritizing economic interests even in dealings with Russia or China has only fueled European integration and inertia.
His exit could open the door for the other half of the European engine – the Macron – to slide into the driver’s seat.
The stars appear to align: France has presided over the European Union since January, and with the arrival of a Social Democrat-led coalition in Germany, even the old German adage of budgetary rigidity seems to be wavering. Because Europe’s largest economy is inclined to spend in its own way. out of the pandemic.
Similarly, on defence, Germany, once tied comfortably under an “American shield”, is no longer so certain when Donald Trump’s presidency prompted the political classes in Berlin to bury their old certainties and begin a shift in mindset. Forced to.
Reflecting the change, Scholz’s upcoming coalition of its Social Democrats, ecologists Greens and liberal FDP declared in their agreement that it would “enable, promote and advance this sovereign Europe as an economically viable nation in the heart of Europe”. His task as a strong and populated country”.
“Merkel’s departure could allow the development of France’s vision of a powerful Europe, an ambition that Macron has championed since coming to power,” said Alexandre Robinet-Borgomano of the Institut Montaigne.
Helen Thompson of the University of Cambridge wrote, “Leading in charge” for Merkel’s chant is Macron, although “her self-proclaimed attempts to give a clearly political objective to the European Union have so far been frustrated”.
‘Merkelism’ is over
In the midst of changing the guard in Berlin, Macron recently signed a new bilateral cooperation treaty with Draghi.
Even though the ambitious 43-year-old president has defended himself by saying that France is not seeking to change French-German relations, the time for a deal comes as the EU realigns itself after Brexit.
However, France’s leader faces an election in 2022, with the far-right posing a challenge.
Whatever the outcome, France could for some time be tied up with domestic politics, stifling its ability to develop a grand vision for Europe.
Scholz, 63, a veteran politician who has served in two of Merkel’s cabinets, may seize the opportunity as Merkel’s successor.
But analysts warn that times have changed, and more “Merkelism” may not make for the new era.
“The policy of remaining neutral to the conditions in Europe and avoiding difficult solutions does not appear to be a viable approach to the challenges ahead,” wrote ECFR’s Piotr Buras and Jana Puglierin.
“Merkelism is unlikely to overtake Merkel … because the EU will need a more visionary and courageous Germany to strengthen its foundation and defend its place in the world.”
The jury is still out on whether Scholz, who had styled himself as a Merkel mimic during the German campaign – for his rhombus hand gestures – would step out of his shadow to take a more radical path.
With the need of the hour for both major European players to shake up realities, a new pole of stability has emerged in the once indebted South.
‘stasis’?
Dubbed “Super Mario” during his tenure at the helm of the European Central Bank, Draghi has brought stability to a country that was once a nickname for political turmoil and scandals.
“Draghi can fill the void left by Angela Merkel as a consensus builder in the European Council,” Nicoletta Pirozzi of the think-tank Istituto Afari Internazionali in Rome told AFP.
“Moreover, compared to Merkel’s cautious approach, she can inject a new dynamism into key areas of European integration, from the reform of economic governance to foreign policy and defence, in collaboration with France and the new German government.”
But Pirozzi said much would depend on whether the 74-year-old Italian leader succeeds in successfully implementing the EU’s economic recovery plan.
Italy’s presidential election in early 2022 could “radically change the picture” as Draghi is also known as “one of the most credible possible candidates” in that race.
Unless a new leader emerges, some analysts see a gloomy future for the bloc.
“Europe is headed for a period of uncertainty and potential weakness,” Reich warned.
Similarly, Thompson was a pessimist. “The EU, fueled by the rivalry between the US and China and an internally divided EU, lives in a world different from the years of Ms. Merkel’s domination,” she wrote.
“The reality, clearly stated, is that neither the (new) German Chancellor nor the French government can lead Europe.
“And in the absence of leadership, Europe is headed for one thing – stagnation.”
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