New Delhi: With the Election Commission announcing polling dates for five states (Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur), political parties are in full force to woo voters, though some campaign restrictions remain in place.
In order to understand the mood of voters ahead of the 2022 assembly elections, ABP News in association with CVoter conducted an opinion poll in the electoral states. Along with the seat estimates, vote share percentage and on-the-ground assessments done from time to time, ABP-CVoter has come out with the key findings of the latest opinion poll.
ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll Jan | Important facts of Uttar Pradesh
1. The Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Akhilesh Yadav and its allies has improved significantly from the actual 23.6% votes cast to an estimated 33.5% in the 2017 UP assembly election, according to the latest CVoter Opinion Poll numbers available in January. 6, 2022. Even a few months back, CVoter Poll Tracker was sizing the SP+ below 30%. However, having said that, the tracker also highlights the Upper Circuit that the SP has been unable to dissolve the alliance. In his best possible rise, he could not break the 35% mark which was crucial to bring down the BJP. Looks like the trend from BSP to SP+ is now saturated and now Akhilesh Yadav will have to work on 7% votes standing with Congress, if he wants to cross 35% mark, he should switch to SP+ Gotta bow down.
2. The BJP has maintained its vote share won in the 2017 UP assembly election, even in the latest estimates, with an estimated vote share of 41.5% in the latest ABP News-CVoter survey. In fact, the estimated BJP vote share has not dropped below 40% during the long-running poll tracker conducted by CVoter since 2021.
3. This 8% difference in vote share will probably prove to be the deciding factor during the actual UP assembly elections 2022; With the BJP-led alliance estimated to win 229 seats. This is 96 seats less than the 2017 UP assembly election, but still a comfortable simple majority.
4. His absence as a serious contender in the race for Mayawati and BSP comes as a surprise to his supporters. The BSP vote share is projected to fall from the actual 22.2% in the 2017 UP assembly election to an estimated 12.9% in the 2022 UP assembly election.
5. One of the reasons could be that analysts and pundits say that the farmers’ movement is affecting the BJP’s fortunes, especially in western Uttar Pradesh. There were reports from the ground that Jats and Muslims may bury the memories of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots and vote for the SP-RLD alliance. The CVoter poll tracker shows that the BJP has an estimated vote share of 41.2% in the region, far ahead of the SP-RLD alliance’s estimated 33%.
6. Despite Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi’s valiant efforts and imaginative slogans like “girl hoon, fight sakti hoon” as well as myriad promises of welfare schemes, she does not seem to be able to stop the decline of the Congress party in the state. The vote share of the Congress is projected to increase marginally, while the number of seats may decline from 7 in the 2017 UP assembly elections to 5 in the 2022 UP assembly elections.
ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll Jan | Important facts of Uttarakhand
1. The most interesting aspect of elections is who is the favorite Chief Minister. Veteran Congress leader and former Chief Minister Harish Rawat, with 37% support, is miles ahead of incumbent Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami, who enjoys the support of around 29% voters. Rawat’s numbers have grown steadily from 30% since the end of 2021 as his starting point. It is rare for a sitting Chief Minister to be so far behind an opposition leader, but it is hardly surprising given the rapid turnaround of 3 CMs within a year by the BJP.
2. Under normal circumstances, this should have predicted a comfortable victory for the Congress in Uttarakhand. But voter opinion polls by ABP News have consistently shown that the fight is very close and both the parties are literally going neck and neck. In the upcoming state assembly elections, the BJP is projected to win 34 seats in the 70-member assembly, while the Congress is projected to win 33 seats.
3: There is no doubt that BJP has faced a huge drop in voter support in the state. In the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections, BJP had secured 46.5% vote share. It is estimated to fall by 8% in the 2022 Uttarakhand assembly election. It had won 57 seats in the 2017 Uttarakhand Assembly elections. Whereas in the latest Opinion Poll of ABP-CVoter, BJP is projected to go down by 23 seats in the 2022 Uttarakhand Assembly Elections.
4. It seems that Baluni, Koshyari, General Khanduri and Satpal Maharaj have many contenders for the top post in BJP amidst good support of voters. The frequent change in the chief minister’s post seems to have confused the voters. But if you add up their numbers, the total number of BJP candidates as CM’s choice is ahead of Harish Rawat.
5. Without the Aam Aadmi Party factor, it is possible that the Congress would have easily won Uttarakhand. The ABP News-CVoter opinion poll clearly shows that AAP is getting a major chunk of anti-BJP votes, apart from building its new base of voters like it is doing in Goa. AAP had zero vote share in 2017 as it did not formally contest the elections. But it is estimated to get 12.9% vote share in the 2022 assembly elections. As is known, a vote share below the 15% threshold does not translate into multiple seats. In such a situation, AAP is expected to win only 3 seats. More importantly, how many seats the Congress will be sure to lose.
ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll Jan | Important facts of Punjab
1. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress are projected to get 40% and 36% votes respectively in the latest ABP News-CVoter Opinion Poll. As far as Punjab race is concerned, AAP is on pole position. Despite the increase in vote share, AAP may fall short of majority due to regional distribution of voter-base. At the same time, Congress is taking advantage of Mayawati’s moment by becoming the first Dalit CM in the state, strengthening its hold on Dalit voters.
2. The projected vote share of Shiromani Akali Dal (Badal) has declined by 2% from the previous round, it is expected to get 18% vote share and may win around 20 seats in the Badal family stronghold. Currently, it is out of calculation for Chandigarh, but the party’s performance will surely act as a tiebreaker between AAP and Congress.
3. Capt Amarinder Singh and BJP alliance does not seem to be of much benefit. Currently, the group’s vote share (2.5%) and seat share (2 seats) are projected to be in the low single digits. However, the performance of the alliance could affect the fate of around 30 seats.
4. Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is preferred by 29% of Punjabis as CM in the 2022 elections, interestingly, this number corresponds to the number of Dalit population in Punjab. Only 6 percent voters prefer Congress President Sidhu. Arvind Kejriwal is preferred by 17% voters and Sukhbir Singh Badal 15% for Punjabis. The surprise of the pack is Bhagwant Mann, who has garnered 23% approval rating in the latest round-up, up from 13% in the previous round. If AAP declares her as the chief ministerial face, it may further strengthen their numbers as the overall support for Kejriwal and Mann is almost 10% more than CM Channi and 5% more than CM Channi and Navjot Sidhu.
5. Hence, the three X factors that decided Punjab’s decision 2022 are as follows
a. Relative victory of AAP and Congress in their respective strongholds
b. Akali Dal’s performance and its likely impact on AAP and Congress
C. Capt Amarinder Singh’s ability to sabotage Congress’s prospects
ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll Jan | Major facts of Goa
1. BJP is expected to get a simple majority with 32% vote share in the Goa Legislative Assembly 2022. AAP is projected to emerge as the main opposition party with 23% vote share and former leading contender INC is projected to turn out a little over 19% vote share. It is clear from the vote shares that Goa is headed for a divided mandate which may ultimately benefit the BJP.
2. Seeing the erosion of votes and seats in the last few rounds of the tracker, BJP has again started tightening its hold in Goa. Currently, the BJP is projected to win 21 seats just before the halfway point of 20 seats. AAP is the surprise of the pack and is expected to win 7 seats as compared to 6 seats projected for Congress.
3. If you are currently doing well without a face, would it benefit from presenting her as a strong leader? This question is better answered by the steady trend of seats and votes for AAP in Goa. The absence of a strong leadership is perhaps hindering more voters to vote for him.
4. Mamta Banerjee’s much talked entry of Trinamool Congress is likely to be stalled. Its alliance with MGP is still almost certain. 8% vote share, around 5.5% expressed their support for MGP and barely 2.5% expressed their support for TMC. The fact is that MGP chief Sudin Dhavalikar’s popularity has dropped from 8% to 5% in recent months after the announcement of an alliance with TMC.
ABP News CVoter Opinion Poll Jan | Important facts of Manipur
1. Manipur is a close contest and in the successive rounds of the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, two main trends have been observed
a. There is a tough fight between BJP and Congress. They are projected to garner 36% and 33% vote share respectively
b. The BJP has maintained a consistent lead over the Congress despite a very small margin.
2. The trend seen so far seems to be crystallizing and the BJP’s lead over the Congress has faded from the previous round of trackers. At present it is expected to win 25 seats while Congress is on heels with 24 seats. Naga ethnic party NPF is expected to capture 4 seats and “Others” can tag around 7 remaining seats.
Disclaimer: The current opinion poll/poll was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and sample size is 89536+ for the same in 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) and survey it was done. During the period from 12 December 2021 to 8 January 2022. It is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily cover all criteria.
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