Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2022, C-Voter Survey: With months very crucial for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, ABP News in association with C-Voter conducted a survey to assess the mood of voters in the state.
According to the latest survey, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government headed by CM Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh, a state with a significant impact on the country’s political landscape, is likely to return to power in the 2022 election.
No opposition party, including the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress, has the confidence of voters to oust the Adityanath government in 2022, as it stands today.
The latest round of opinion polls has revealed that the current government in the country’s most populous state remains the most preferred option for the people.
voter share
According to the survey data, the ruling BJP is expected to garner 41.3 per cent votes in the upcoming assembly elections in the state. Notably, the saffron party has consistently maintained its vote share of around 41 per cent in the state – the BJP had secured 41.4 per cent votes in the state in the 2017 assembly elections.
Meanwhile, the vote share of former CM Akhilesh Yadav-led SP is expected to increase from 23.6 per cent in 2017 to 8.8 per cent in 2022 to 32.4 per cent.
However, the survey shows that the vote share of the Mayawati-led BSP is likely to fall from 22.2 per cent in 2017 to 7.5 per cent in 2022 to 14.7 per cent.
The country’s oldest party – the Congress, out of power in the state since 1989, is expected to get 5.6 per cent votes, compared to 6.3 per cent in 2017.
seat estimate
Converting seats, the BJP+ is likely to capture somewhere between 241 and 249 seats in the 2022 assembly elections. Though the BJP and its allies will see a decline in the number of seats from the 325 seats it got in 2017, the alliance is expected to cross the majority mark with ease.
The Samajwadi Party, emerging as the main contender, is expected to improve between 130 and 138 seats this time, up from 48 in 2017.
The survey further shows that the BSP is steadily losing political ground in the state as the party is expected to get 15-19 seats this time, in 2017 it had won just 19 seats. Even the Congress will be reduced to a single digit figure. Between 3 and 7 seats.
[Disclaimer: The present opinion poll/ survey was conducted by CVoter. The methodology used is CATI interviews of adult (18+) respondents with random numbers drawn from standard RDD and the sample size for the same is 98000+ across 5 states (UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur) & the survey was carried out during the period 4th September 2021 to 4th October 2021. The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5% and may not necessarily have factored in all criteria.]
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