The BJP will contest on seven of the 24 constituencies going to polls in Jammu & Kashmir in the first phase, leaving many seats vacant, apart from fielding just 24 candidates of the 47 seats in the Valley.
While the saffron party was clear that it would back candidates from like-minded parties, now, the BJP has fielded a candidate against Jammu and Kashmir People’s Conference chief Sajjad Lone, whom the party had supported in Baramulla during the Lok Sabha polls.
This makes one wonder if BJP is banking on smaller and irrelevant parties like Aman Aur Shanti Tehreek-e-Jammu and Kashmir, All Jammu and Kashmir Liberal Democratic Party, and Jammu and Kashmir Nationalist People’s Front to contain National Conference (NC) and PDP in the Valley. The answer, however, is no. Instead, what the BJP is betting on this assembly election are Independents that form nearly 44 per cent of the total candidates in the fray in the first two phases.
THE ARITHMETIC
The BJP is betting big on Independents — many of whom have militant strands with some backed by the banned Jamaat-e-Islami — to contain NC and PDP.
In the first two phases, there are roughly 145 Independents in the fray. Late on Monday night, the Election Commission announced that 27 candidates have withdrawn their names without specifying which party they filed their nominations from. Without the clarity, it is safe to say the count of Independents remains at 145, which is nearly 44 per cent of the total candidates in the first two phases. In the first phase alone, there are 92 Independents out of 219 candidates, which makes it 42 per cent Independents in just the first phase.
In the last assembly elections in J&K a decade ago, the Independents formed 31 per cent of the total candidates.
BJP’s plan of action seems to be working, with Omar Abdullah — who was defeated in this year’s Lok Sabha election by jailed separatist Rashid Engineer — crying foul. On Saturday, while addressing an election rally, Abdullah said: “They want to target only one person — the National Conference candidate from Ganderbal.” Abdullah is fighting the assembly election from Ganderbal.
WHY SHOULD NC & PDP WORRY?
While there may be 145 Independents in the fray in the first two phases, the worry for Abdullahs and Muftis is further compounded by giant killer Engineer Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party which has finalised 18 candidates so far and plans to announce a total of 35-40 names across North Kashmir — Rashid’s main base — and Central Kashmir. After Rashid secured 4,72,481 votes from Baramulla in this Lok Sabha election, Omar Abdullah certainly won’t be dismissive of AIP candidates as a fringe.
However, his real worry remains the 44 per cent Independents. In Ganderbal alone, Omar Abdullah is facing at least seven Independents. Of those seven, the one who may weigh heavily on Abdullah’s mind is Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, also known as Sarjan Barkati. Barkati is a jailed separatist who has filed his nomination from the Ganderbal seat, just like Tihar-confined Engineer Rashid did from Baramulla earlier this year. The nomination papers were submitted by one Adil Nazir Khan on behalf of Barkati on the last day of filing papers for the second phase, taking Abdullah by surprise.
Barkati, a cleric who is currently in jail for his role in instigating violent protests during the 2016 unrest in the Valley following the killing of Burhan Wani, is seen to be a more hard-line option for the voters of Ganderbal than Abdullah.
According to the chargesheet filed in a court earlier this year, Barkati is “an active ideologue, promoter and supporter of the terrorist-secessionist nexus who hatched a criminal conspiracy with others, including his family members, to facilitate, aid, incite, advise, advocate and promote terrorist and secessionists”. No wonder, Abdullah reacted sharply to his nomination, saying: “There is no other politician Delhi wants to silence but me because when I talk, I represent your sentiments and our lost respect.”
In a post-2019 scenario, where Kashmir has lost its right to call itself a state, this would be the first chance for silent Kashmiri voters to exercise their franchise.
Rising from political obscurity since 1987 — the watershed moment that kickstarted a long spell of terrorism in the erstwhile state — the Jamaat, though still banned, is politically back. The organisation has decided to field three of its former members — Dr Talat Majeed, Sayar Ahmad Reshi, and Nazir Ahmad — as Independents for the first phase and back Ajaz Ahmad Mir, who is fighting as an Independent after being denied a ticket by PDP. For the uninitiated, the Valley’s largest indigenous militant outfit — Hizbul Mujahideen — called itself the armed wing of Jamaat.
If Independents backed by Jamaat fight it out electorally, mainstream Kashmiri political parties like the NC and the PDP or national alternatives like the Congress will have very less to offer, both in terms of hard-line legacy and consistency, ending up vastly dividing the votes of the Kashmir Valley.
As the BJP hopes to win the bulk of Jammu seats if not replicate its 2014 performance of 25 seats, a divided House in Kashmir will deny frontrunner NC as well as PDP any chance for a Kashmir sweep, resulting in a hung assembly that suits the BJP better.