Amid the US show of force in the Middle East, the political echelon is in a dilemma: whether to continue to preserve the northern arena as a secondary front, remaining vigilant and on high alert for fear of a reaction by Iran and its allies, or launch a pre-emptive strike and deprive Hezbollah of strategic capabilities such as precision missiles, rockets, long-range missiles, and weapons stockpiles?
This question is only sharpened in view of the call of quite a few elements in the security system, who are pushing for “surprises” that will not necessarily escalate the reaction of Iran and its allies but will deter them from an action that will lead to the killing of civilians in Israel.
The IDF is having an impact on Hezbollah and positions Nasrallah in countless dilemmas every day concerning the military activities he can take against Israel.
The security establishment estimates that Nasrallah does not really enjoy full freedom of action and is waiting for Tehran to dictate the framework of the response. Tehran is itself debating the military response. Iran is reportedly evaluating what kind of military response might trigger an all-out war with Israel.
The ‘black cloud’ scenario
Senior officials in the defense establishment warned of a strategic change in the Middle East since Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran all operate in joint coordination. For this reason, they must be considered one piece until further notice. Some in the security system call this change a “black cloud.”
The sources estimated that Iran prefers a “battle of attrition” that will exact a price from Israel rather than a broad military response that will bring the region to the brink of war.
On the other hand, the American administration embraces Israel and holds frequent talks with it. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has had over 100 conversations with his counterpart, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, since the beginning of the war.
In recent weeks, the two have sometimes spoken daily and even twice a day to coordinate intelligence and developments.
One of the sources said that the Iranians are very afraid of what the Americans are capable of doing against Iran, especially since the White House has a president who will be replaced in a few months and would not want an occurrence in the Middle East to damage his legacy.