Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February. (file photo)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 shocked the world but President Vladimir Putin showed no signs of backing down.
Here are the likely scenarios for the coming weeks and months, according to Western government sources and think-tank experts.
1) Military Swamp
The Ukrainian army has so far resisted the Russian invasion, defeating an early attempt by paratroopers to seize the capital and take control of major cities such as Kharkiv and Mariupol.
Although Russia claims it has absolute air superiority, Ukraine’s air defenses in and around the capital Kyiv appear to be deteriorating but still functioning, Western officials say.
“It caused them a lot of problems,” a European source told reporters on the condition of anonymity on Friday.
A large number of Ukrainians have also joined regional defense units and questions remain about the morale of the Russian military and its military support.
Backed by Western intelligence and an influx of anti-tank and surface-to-air missiles, Ukraine’s military may be able to hold onto the capital and force any sort of military standoff.
The deepening of Western sanctions that have choked the Russian economy could force Putin to change his calculations.
“The West may take advantage of some sanctions to persuade Putin to abandon his main war objective of toppling the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian puppet,” wrote Samuel Charp of US think-tank RAND Corporation this week.
Pressure from Beijing, the Kremlin ally under President Xi Jinping, may also be necessary.
2) Domestic Russian change
Russian President Vladimir Putin is keeping a close eye on domestic discontent.
The crackdown on independent media and foreign news providers has removed alternative sources of information about the war, tightening the grip of the ultra-loyal Russian state media.
Nevertheless, according to local rights groups, there have been small anti-war demonstrations in cities ranging from St Petersburg to Moscow, in which at least 6,000 people have been arrested.
There are also signs of a rift in the ruling elite, with some oligarchs, lawmakers and even private oil group Lukoil openly calling for a ceasefire or an end to the fighting.
While not seen as likely at this stage, the possibility of Putin being brought down in a popular backlash or even a palace coup is not being ruled out.
Eliot A. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think-tank. “His personal security is great and it will be great until that happens,” Cohen said.
“This has happened many times in Soviet and Russian history.”
3) Russian military success
Given Russian troops’ disastrous use of superior weapons, air power and artillery, Western defense analysts expect them to continue to advance.
A huge convoy of vehicles has gathered outside Kyiv ahead of an attack on the capital.
French President Emmanuel Macron concluded Thursday morning after a call with Putin that “the worst is yet to come”.
An aide later told reporters that Putin “wanted to take control of the whole of Ukraine”.
But even if Russian troops depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and eliminate Ukraine’s resistance elsewhere, Putin will still face the challenge of taking over the nation of 40 million.
“Entering a city is not the same as capturing it,” wrote British war historian and professor at King’s College London, Lawrence Freedman, on Substack this week.
4) Conflict spreads
Ukraine shares a border with four former Soviet states that are now members of the US-led NATO military alliance, which considers an attack on one member an attack against all.
Putin’s nostalgia for the Soviet Union and his pledge to protect the Russian minorities found in the Baltic states have left an open question about his regional ambitions.
After Ukraine, some speculate that Putin is also eyeing Moldova, a former Soviet state between Ukraine and Romania.
Some expect Putin to openly attack a NATO member, threatening nuclear war, but other provocations are possible.
“Neutral Sweden is keeping a watchful eye on Russia’s intentions towards the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea,” wrote analyst Bruno Tertrais at the Montaign Institute, a French think-tank.
Charp warned of “the risk of an accident, incident, or miscalculation of the spiral into NATO-Russia war”, in which anything from a stray missile to a cyberattack provides the spark.
5) NATO confrontation
This was always considered impossible because of the mutual guarantee of the destruction of nuclear weapons.
The US and Russia have opened a so-called “contradiction line” on which they can quickly exchange military information to reduce the possibility of misunderstandings.
The same approach is followed in Syria, where US and Russian forces have been active on opposite sides of the country’s civil war since 2015.
But Putin has ordered Russia’s nuclear deterrent forces on high alert, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that “World War III could only be a nuclear war”.
Western analysts say such warnings should be taken as a currency to deter the United States and Europe from considering ideas such as a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine.
“These announcements are addressed primarily to Western audiences to make us fear and our society vulnerable,” said Gustav Gressel, an expert in missile defense at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“They use nuclear deterrence as a form of information handling. There is no substance.”
(This story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)