While authors like Ratan Sharada have effectively highlighted the BJP’s shortcomings in his article on the 2024 election outcome, little attention has been given to how the ‘break India’ ecosystem has exploited these weaknesses to nearly achieve their goals. Minhaz Merchant discussed in his May 16, 2024 article how a sub-300 seat outcome for Modi in 2024 would suit the West, yet he did not delve into the strategies the ecosystem might have employed to achieve its objectives.
In my Firstpost article on May 31, 2023, I explored how the deep state might employ the “death by a thousand cuts” method and why India must brace itself against sophisticated, well-funded toolkits aimed at regime change. Drawing parallels between the 2020 American Presidential elections and the 2023 Karnataka state elections, my analysis highlighted the extravagant promises of freebies, the roles played by NGOs and dubious service organisations circumventing Foreign Contribution Regulation Act (FCRA) regulations, and various other methods aimed at influencing election outcomes—a strategy I termed “death by a thousand cuts”. Unfortunately, such a regime change operation was conducted with precision and came remarkably close to achieving its objectives, were it not for the extraordinary efforts of PM Narendra Modi.
It appears a similarly meticulous strategy is already in play, exploiting perceived vulnerabilities within the BJP’s election machinery. This toolkit employs tactics ranging from divisive deepfake videos and extravagant promises of large sums of money to other deceptive practices—all aimed at achieving a “death by a thousand cuts” outcome.
According to various sources, meticulous studies were conducted on the 543 constituencies where the margin of victory was narrow in the 2019 elections, leading to the formulation of dubious schemes aimed at increasing the chances of winning. Particularly alarming is the alleged use of deepfake video technology to manipulate a speech by Home Minister Amit Shah, falsely claiming that Dalits would lose their reservations. This incident, which occurred this year, saw Opposition party workers reportedly disseminate the fake message in remote areas of targeted constituencies using various methods, including digital vans. Additionally, there were efforts to amplify the Bhim Army’s influence in Maharashtra, exploiting Ambedkar’s legacy and using his descendants to stoke Dalit dissatisfaction with the BJP through targeted propaganda.
Many colour, professional-looking pamphlets promising substantial sums of money were distributed, targeting Muslims in particular. The BJP reportedly offered little resistance to this tactic. Furthermore, there were reports of attempts to coach Muslim voters on misleading exit polls by claiming they voted based on development—a strategy intended to influence media narratives, even though exit poll results cannot be announced until all election phases are complete. The BJP also faced constant misinformation attacks from figures like Dhruv Rathee, with minimal response from the party’s IT cells.
Additionally, the alleged encouragement of “turncoats” to join the BJP—solely to weaken it from within—caused a double whammy, alienating dedicated ground-level workers who had spent years opposing the party. Similarly, post-election phase media appearances by poll strategists like Prashant Kishor, offering assurances of a Modi victory, may have lulled BJP activists into a false sense of complacency.
The media’s potential role in this alleged election interference warrants investigation. Indian Army veteran Sandeep Dhawan, in his article, ‘Curious Case of Western Deep State and Indian Elections,’ highlighted Rahul Gandhi’s 257 foreign trips between 2015 and 2019, while the BJP IT cell was busy making memes and videos on why he is not fit to be a prime minister. Dhawan questioned the purpose of these trips, including a July 2017 meeting with Chinese envoy Lou Zhaohui at the height of the Doklam standoff, along with numerous other undisclosed foreign visits. Additionally, some news portals reported that the names of hundreds of thousands of BJP voters had been removed from voter lists in parts of Tamil Nadu, raising concerns that such irregularities could enable post-poll violence similar to what has been witnessed in West Bengal, threatening the very fabric of Indian democracy.
All this meticulous planning was reflected in the election results: the BJP faced significant losses in targeted constituencies, while their victories elsewhere were narrow. Critics argue that overconfidence, complacency, and arrogance within the BJP mirrored the ‘India Shining’ moment of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government in 2004, ultimately leading to defeat. This outcome is deeply humbling for the prime minister, who has dedicated much of his life to the nation’s development.
However, some right-wing followers see a silver lining in the election results, hoping this outcome will prompt the BJP to address concerns within its base – deep civilisational issues such as demographic changes, issues with the Waqf Board, the impact of the Right to Education Act on Hindu institutions, and the removal of discriminatory articles against Hindus in the Constitution. Some believe that even if India becomes a developed nation, the lack of urgency in addressing civilisational issues will result in a situation where Hindus become minorities, akin to what happened in earlier Buddhist countries like South Korea, where Buddhists now constitute only 35 per cent after just a few decades.
Yet, this subversion of free and fair elections may have come at an extraordinary cost to the nation’s development, especially as India confronts twin challenges from China and Pakistan at its borders, alongside efforts by the ‘deep state’ to manipulate Indian governance towards a more compliant regime, potentially under the Congress party.
While China advances rapidly in various domains, India remains mired in a constant election cycle, with many politicians willing to exploit divisions and hinder progress, potentially plunging millions back into poverty and hardship. What course changes does the BJP need to make to self-correct? The BJP is a humongous election machine, but the best tools and resources are of no avail if actions are coloured by overconfidence, complacency, and arrogance. In my June 2018 article, I warned that the BJP would make a grave mistake by underestimating Rahul Gandhi. What they face is not merely an individual but a vast ecosystem supporting him, and history shows that many conflicts have been lost due to underestimation or ridicule of the adversary.
India urgently needs to halt FCRA and impose stringent restrictions on dubious social service organisations that infiltrate remote areas, aiming to undermine democracy. There must be stringent national anti-conversion laws. The BJP, meanwhile, must thoroughly overhaul its approach to IT and social media, leveraging the latest AI technologies. Additionally, the government needs to exert tighter control over platforms like YouTube to prevent the suppression of authentic voices. Studying documented regime change operations, as depicted in documentaries like ‘Ukraine on Fire,’ can equip India to pre-empt such threats before they take hold.
Investigations should be conducted into nearly 300 foreign trips made by Rahul Gandhi, alongside pursuing cases related to dual citizenship, the National Herald case, and various alleged scams involving the Gandhi family. The Congress party has perpetrated many injustices that have kept the nation in poverty, while China lunged forward and is now challenging the US and the West. India has the same, or even greater, potential, but for the selfish politicians who are more interested in their dynasties than in the people of the nation.
Authorities should look into attempts, if any, from the ‘Break India’ brigade to influence the Opposition to pursue its divisive agenda. Sustained efforts should also focus on understanding the Opposition’s election strategies and developing quick counter-strategies. Importantly, the approach should be bottom-up, emphasising grassroots feedback rather than relying solely on top-down methods.
The writer is a US-based activist who has played a critical role in the introduction of paper trail for India’s Electronic Voting Machines called VVPAT. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.