Of the three foods – wheat, corn and rice – that account for about 40 percent of the world’s caloric intake, production of two is set to drop slightly in 2022.
according to United States Department of AgricultureIt is estimated that this year wheat production is estimated to decline by 0.51 percent or 40 lakh tonnes. Similarly, a marginal decline in maize production is expected. However, rice production is expected to touch a record high of 515 million tonnes.
While the decline is expected to be modest, the growing inefficiency of commonly used food items has pushed a large segment of the population to the brink of extreme food insecurity.
For example, the price of wheat globally has increased by 91 per cent since January 2021, according to World Bank data. Maize became costlier by 55 per cent in the same period.
Population groups most at risk of food price shocks are those who spend a major part of their average consumer spending on buying essential commodities. a paper by Boston Consulting Group He believes that at least 45 countries – mostly located in Africa, South Asia and Latin America – are “endorsing some of the worst effects of the crisis.”
Yemen, Lebanon, Haiti, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Ethiopia and Sudan are some of the countries with a “heavy reliance on food imports, a combination of factors such as high import bills, high inflation, a high debt burden, climate risks and civil society”. “unrest” will likely aggravate the situation, the BCG paper observed.
What is the reason for such a sharp increase in the prices of food items?
The Russo-Ukraine War has been a major factor. The two countries, locked in a war for nearly 100 days, are now major exporters of corn and wheat, two of the most widely used food items globally.
It is estimated that 25 African countries imported more than a third of their total wheat requirement from the two warring countries. For 15 countries, the dependency was 50 percent or more. Economic sanctions on Russia and exports from Ukraine have stalled supply lines. As a result, most of these countries have been forced to look for alternatives that are not readily available. Battling never-before-seen global inflation, many supplier countries have imposed restrictions on the trade in food items.
Sensing the turn of events unfolding after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the World Food Program has painted a grim scenario. It states that “as these prices rise (food and energy) transmission to local markets in poor countries, which previously struggled to afford energy-sufficient food, they find it completely out of reach.” With food prices rising steadily since mid-2020, additional pressure has pushed them into the food price crisis of 2008 and 2011.
Does a pandemic-battered world have the capacity to face this bread and butter crisis again?